Hans Petter Midttun on LinkedIn: Opinion: Dynamic ‘Stalemate’ – Perception Problems From Faulty Focus (2024)

The war of drones escalatesThe Russian Ministry of Defence has said that Ukraine launched over 100 drones at military targets in Russia, claiming that the air defence systems destroyed 4 tactical missiles and 117 UAVs.As always, the ministry remained silent about the consequences of the missile and drone attacks.Russian Telegram channels, however, reported that drones had attacked three Russian air bases. There is information about an attack on theSavasleyka air basein Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which serves as a base for Russian MiG-31K and Tu-22M3. There were also reports of an attack on theBaltimore air basein Voronezh.The base is home to the 47th Composite Guards Aviation Regiment which operates two squadrons of Sukhoi Su-34s. In addition, local media reported drone attacks and explosions at the air base near Borisoglebsk in Voronezh Oblast.One of the obvious advantages of the Kursk incursion - besides the gains outlined in my recent article "The Kursk Incursion logic" - is that Russian forces attacking Ukrainian cities and settlements are pushed back. Additionally, it increases Ukraine's range and ability to strike military targets inside Russia. According to Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, a Ukrainian expert, the advance into Russia’sKursk Oblasthas placed the Ukrainian military within reach of several Russian military airfields. Some of the airfields like Shaikovka, are used as bases for Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers. Baltimore Air Base "was one of the 26 airfields that have undergone modernization, including an upgrade of the runway and infrastructure. He pointed out Baltimore, Dyagilevo, and Shaikovka as three critical airfields that can be targeted from the Kursk "People’s Republic" (ironically referring to the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics". Last night, two of the three were attacked by Ukrainian drones. When I was in Kyiv recently, Russia launched its biggest UAV strike against Ukraine since New Year's Eve. 89 drones were launched and 89 were shot down. In comparison, Ukraine last night launched around 120 UAVs (and some missiles). That’s nearly half the number of Shaheeds Russia has launched so far in August. Additionally, it is only the latest of a series of huge Ukrainian strikes against Russian military targets, most of which have caused havoc on Russian air bases, fuel and ammunition depots and defence industrial base. This highlights the message in my recent article on "The Dynamic Stalemate", in which I argued that war is being fought with both military and non-military means; on land, in the air, at sea, in space, in cyberspace and not least, in the cognitive space.The single-minded focus on the land war makes many forget the many Ukrainian successes within multiple domains. Cartoon: Rodrigo de Matos

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The Kursk incursion logicMy latest article: “The new offensive comes at great risk. Attacking the Russian Federation, Ukraine risks triggering Article 4 of the CSTO Collective Security Treaty, in which “Member State shall immediately provide the [victim of aggression] with the necessary help, including military one, as well as provide support by the means at their disposal in accordance with the right to collective defence pursuant to article 51 of the UN Charter.” This would completely change the dynamic of the war. The incursion will also challenge an already stretched Ukrainian Armed Forces, still suffering the consequences of the Russian offensive, the US temporary stop in defence aid (Oct-Apr), the slow and incremental inflow of European pledged weapons and ammunition, and Ukrainian manpower shortage. The incursion, however, potentially also offers huge gains.1.Force Russia to redeploy forces from the frontline2.Demonstrate Russian vulnerabilities3.Undermine Western argument policy of self-deterrence4.Demonstrate Ukrainian resolve and capabilities5.Strengthen Western support6.The Psychological factor7.VictoryThe incursion is, however, first of all, a stepping stone in Ukraine's quest to defeat Russia on the battlefield.Ukraine's invasion of Kursk Oblast has allowed Ukraine to temporarily seize the battlefield initiative locally and, thereby, potentially contest Russia's theatre-wide initiative. Once Russia starts redeploying forces to Kursk, new opportunities open.“The current Ukrainian incursion poses significant threats to Russian military operations in Ukraine and Putin's regime stability and demands a response.”The Kursk Offensive helps speed up the Russian military demise, reinvigorate Western support and strengthen Ukrainian resolve and resilience.”https://lnkd.in/dC2dg8qU

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I’m greatly honoured to have been invited to speak about Security and intelligence challenges in 2025 at the Sarajevo Security Conference on 20-22 September.

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My latest interview: War in Ukraine as we know it could be over within a year, Midttun tells EZAccording to Norwegian security expert Hans Petter Midttun the conflict in its current form may potentially end within the next year.EuroZprávy.cz turned to Norwegian security expert Hans Peter Midttun to outline how the war will continue. "War as we know it today could end within the next year," he conceded.He added that although Russia has "almost unlimited" human resources, it is "rapidly running out of main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers." According to Midttun, it is "capable of replacing its "huge losses" only by introducing old Soviet weapons to the battlefield.""The production of the defence industry has reached its peak, and the Russian industry (non-defence) is suffering from a shortage of 4.8 million workers," the expert noted, noting that Russia is not even able to replace the high-tech equipment lost on the battlefield. "Even damaged equipment is piling up and waiting to be repaired," he added.According to Midttun, the Russian military will have to "dramatically" change its strategy by next year to ensure that its ground forces "remain an effective deterrent". "This is also helped by technological progress in the Ukrainian armed forces," he added. "We are witnessing several trends that are increasingly in favour of Ukraine, including within the drone war, increasing defence support from the West, an increasingly powerful air force and gradually decreasing restrictions on the use of Western-made weapons". "But that doesn't necessarily mean the war will end," he stressed.Instead of ending, the war may return to "low-intensity conflict, as in 2014-2021". Above all, Russia will strive to prevent Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO. "It is already a protracted war that has lasted more than ten years. Russia may try to return to a low-intensity conflict if Ukraine allows it. The latter is not at all certain, because Ukraine has clearly stated that it will not give up the territory," the expert explained.He also thinks that Europe's will and ability to support Ukraine is not limited in time, "because Europe long ago recognised that supporting Ukraine is equal to supporting European security and stability." "After all, this is not a 'Russian-Ukrainian war', but a broader Russia-instigated confrontation in which the enemy is the West - not Ukraine," Midttun added. The expert warned that failure to support Ukraine will have "devastating consequences" for European security. "The consequences are far-reaching and dramatic. In ten years, European security will gradually strengthen, thereby reducing Russia's ability to achieve its strategic goals and objectives," he noted.Cartoon: KALhttps://lnkd.in/d2hr6d7e

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The transition from soviet legacy combat aircraft to F-16On the Ukrainian Air Force Day on 4 August, President Zelenskyy confirmed that the first F-16 fighter jets had been delivered to Ukraine. The Economist reported on August 4 that Ukraine has so far received 10 of the promised 79 jets and that Ukrainian forces should be able to fly 20 F-16s by the end of 2024.According to ISW “Ukraine will need a substantial number of F-16 jets in order to field them at the scale necessary for Ukraine to succeed in integrating fixed-wing aircraft into its wider air defence umbrella. Ukraine will also notably need to continue efforts to target Russian air defence assets within the Russian rear and in occupied Ukraine with Western-provided long-range weapons to enable its use of F-16 jets." The last sentence is highly inaccurate. Firstly, the F-16 was always intended to operate against in a hostile environment. To operate it as freely as NATO did over Libya, however, Russian AD capacities need further degradation. The “Libya scenario” is, however, unattainable.Secondly, to operate it as intended according to NATO doctrine, far more F-16 is needed. This process will take time as both the delivery of fighter jets and the education of pilots and technicians will run its course for 1-2 years. In the meantime, the Ukraine will adapt and adjust. It will find ways to integrate the F-16 into its existing fleet of combat aircraft.Thirdly, the Air Force has been operating soviet legacy and technologically inferior aircrafts successfully for 894 days already. The air threat was always higher than today. If Ukraine has been able to deny Russia Air Superiority with aircraft and air defence systems that have passed their technical life expectancy, they will do even better with a 4th generation combat aircraft.It will not immediately change the situation on the battlefield. It does, however, mark another huge step, transforming the Armed Forces into a credible, modern military power. Russia is facing increasingly greater challenges as Ukraine modernises and increases its ability to destroy military capabilities on the ground, in the air and at sea.The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force stressed that "The battle for the sky rages on. The enemy is attacking us with bombs and missiles around the clock, conducting aerial reconnaissance, and launching strikes using drones every night.The Air Force has destroyed over 8,000 enemy aerial targets over the past two and a half years: hundreds of warplanes and helicopters, thousands of cruise missiles and drones. Ukrainian pilots have conducted over 20,000 sorties, most of them involving the combat use of aerial weapons."As it has done since Feb 2023, Ukraine will continue to degrade Russian Air Defence. Only in Crimea, it has damaged or destroyed about 19 Russian AD systems, including S-300, S-350, S-400 and S-500 divisions, dozens of launchers, and more than 15 radar stations.

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The Ukrainian General Staff reports the Ukrainian Armed Forces significantly damaged 4 launchers of the "Triumph" air defence system yesterday. On 17 June, media reported that "over the past two months, Ukraine's Armed Forces have destroyed about 15 Russian air defence systems, including S-300, S-350, and S-400 divisions, dozens of launchers, more than 15 radar stations, and more than 10 control centres in the temporarily occupied Crimea." The last strike brings the score up to 19. Ukraine is not only preparing for the liberation of Crimea but is also enabling future F-16 operations. Additionally, the submarine "Rostov-on-Don" was successfully attacked in the port of Sevastopol. As a result of the impact, the submarine sank on the spot.For reference. Submarine B-237 "Rostov-on-Don" (according to NATO classification - Kilo class) was one of four submarines of the "Kilo" class, capable of using "Caliber" missiles. "Rostov-on-Don" was commissioned on December 26, 2014. On September 13, 2023, as a result of a Ukrainian missile attack, the ship was seriously damaged.Later, it was repaired and tested in the water area of the Sevastopol harbor. The cost of the submarine is estimated at 300 million dollars. The destruction of "Rostov-on-Don" once again proves that there is no safe place for the Russian fleet in the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Black Sea.

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The tide is slowly turningAfter years of a utterly meaningless and unjustified war, massive destructions and immense suffering, and not least, a constant, slow grinding Russian advance, some find it difficult to keep a positive outlook. I would, however, argue that the tide is slowly turning. Russia’s ability to increase its defence industrial output has likely peaked. It is suffering a record labour shortage of 4.8 million. Ukrainian and Western defence industry, however, is still in the process of ramping-up its output. While Russia is finding ways to evade sanctions, the latter still has impact on both its ability to ramp-up production, uphold production of existing high-tech weapons and develop new ones. Its present war efforts depend on its ability to repair and send soviet legacy tanks, APC and artillery to the frontline. As much as 40% in storage might be beyond repair.Ukraine is facing no such limitations. Its many successes are a result of Western support, domestic innovation and technological advantage. Huge technological changes have taken place on the battlefield over the past 2,5 years. The key messages from a recent conference in Kyiv is that “technologies should become the basis of Ukrainian victory.” Ukraine aims to consolidate the efforts of the private and public sectors in the field of defence technology development. Ukraine seeks constant improvement of unmanned systems, including the increased use of AI, development of UAV swarms and modern EW tools. According to Deputy Commander-in-Chief Andrii Lebedenko, unmanned systems on the battlefield "already outperform conventional weapons, including artillery."Ukraine prioritizes technological innovation. This includes interceptors, artillery fire adjustment systems, counter-battery capabilities, unmanned systems capable of working effectively at operational (up to 100 km) and strategic depths (over 100 km). Technologies that allow to effectively replace the presence of people with robotic systems in the most dangerous areas of the front is already being introduced. It will employ systems previously used only in aviation on unmanned vehicles.Again, advantage Ukraine. Ukraine’s ability to wage drone war is increasing by the day. The inflow of Western made artillery shells are expanding. Western Defence Industry output is increasing. Eight international coalitions are delivering capabilities in all dimensions. More than a third of the BSF has been destroyed. It’s very small advances (see map: red – July 2022 - green – 2023 - blue – July 2024) come at an extreme high cost. Russian casualty rate has been higher than its ability to generate more manpower since October. It is forced to replace modern weapon systems with soviet legacy weapons and its stockpiles are finite. On top of this, the F-16 have not even arrived the battlefield. Map: NAFO Dark Squad (@TankChanChannel)

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European "pacifism" or rather, its lack of investment in security and defence, in perspective: "500 million Europeans (including the United Kingdom) need 340 million Americans to defend them against 145 million Russians."It is not about numbers. The size of the population has limited impact on the threat perspective. Nor has the size of the economy. To many has assumed that Russia is no threat because its economy is 21 times smaller than that of NATO's member states. Its defense budget, however, is only 8-12 times bigger than Russia’s. More importantly, a NATO soldier costs about 10 ten times that of a Russian soldier. Even more crucially, while the life of a NATO soldier is invaluable, the life of a Russian soldier is worth nothing (hence the more than 572,000 killed and wounded during an unjust and unprovoked war in Ukraine). It all comes down to will and ability. A greater part of Europe lacks both. The US lacks the former. Russia has, unfortunately, both in abundance. It has Great Power aspirations. It is aggressive. It sense blood: a mix of fear, lack of resolve, will and ability.

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Military intervention in Ukraine is now essentialFrom my latest article in The Telegraph:"More than 200 negotiations have been held in futile attempts to end the war. They were all futile because Russia was never negotiating in good faith. Russia sees negotiations as a means to defeat its opponents. More importantly, Putin promotes negotiations because it offers NATO an alternative to doing what the Alliance was supposed to do in the first place: Use all available means to stop a war that threatens the security of the Alliance.For a negotiation to be successful, it must solve the cause of the war: Russia’s Great Power ambitions. Until this is repressed, there will be no peace. Unfortunately, these ambitions are not negotiable. They can only be denied through military power.The full-scale war did not start for any of the reasons Putin claimed. It started because negotiations failed to deliver a Ukrainian defeat and the West failed to deter him.Orban, Fico and Erdoğan are pursuing their own national interests. They might seek to strengthen their bilateral relations with Russia, support Russian “values” and expansionism, or secure economic advantages. They might even be trying to align their policy with that of former President Trump. His “peace plan” – as pieced together by his statements and interviews of his close associates – is, after all, a blueprint for Russian victory over Ukraine and the West.Whatever the reason, they are attempting to shift Western focus from conflict resolution to unviable diplomacy to undermine European newfound resolve and its continued support for Ukraine.They are trying to derail a recent and crucial debate: the role of military power in crisis management.Ukraine is fighting for its existence; Russia for its “greatness”. Russia will continue the war until victorious or it risks being defeated. As stressed in my report for the Centre for Defence Strategies"Why the West cannot let Russia win", the consequence of a Russian victory would be devastating.Unfortunately, the NATO Summit failed to deliver hope for an end to the war. The member states ignored the nine compelling reasons given for inviting Ukraine to join. Additionally, describing Russia’s multidomain aggressions against Nato members as “hybrid actions” is a flagrant failure to acknowledge it as a part of a broader campaign – a hybrid war – to undermine and destabilise the Euro-Atlantic area.Fundamentally, NATO's credibility is being undermined by its constant failure to act according to its Strategic Concept from 2010: to defenditselfin Ukraine. A failure to engage in a war that only can be resolved through intervention implies a hope for peace through negotiations.”https://lnkd.in/d6NVcdqv

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